The Ups and Downs of Phoenix’s Feverish Real Estate Market

Our market continues to escalate for sellers and degenerate for buyers. Active listings are down 35% from one year ago and 1.4% from last month. Now, 1.4% may seem small, but not when this is the time of year for increasing listing supply. This remains our critical problem.

“Another troubling statistic for buyers is the 16% increase in “listings under contract…”

Here are the ARMLS numbers for February 1, 2020 compared with February 1, 2019:

  • Active Listings: 11,974 versus 19,040 last year – down 35.1% – and down 1.4% from 12,141 last month
  • Under Contract Listings: 10,030 versus 8,627 last year – up 16.3% – and up 33.0% from 7,539 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 6,403 versus 5,467 last year – up 17.1% – but down 17.8% from 7,789 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft: $182.20 vs $167.79 last year – up 8.6% – and up 1.3% from $179.85 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $289,900 vs $262,000 last year – up 10.6% – and up 0.1% from $289,500 last month

Another troubling statistic for buyers is the 16% increase in “listings under contract” compared with last year and a 33% increase from last month. This further reduces supply. And now we’re seeing demand pick up with sales increasing 17% from last year.

Prices continue increasing. As we predicted recently, we’re expecting double digit appreciation this year, which occurred this past month versus last year rising almost 11% and increasing 1.3% from last month which equates to an annualized rate of almost 16%.

Where it hurts most is with our first-time home buyers. I’ve been showing one client homes under $220,000. Basically there are none! When a new one arises on the market, due to my client’s tough work schedule, we’re not getting to it fast enough before it goes under contract.

The other dilemma nationally is that mortgages are becoming easier to qualify for which likely will further increase demand. But is there more supply to meet the demand? No. Local experts (including us) are expecting the market to increase in frenzy in the next few months, especially in the under $400,000 price range.