Some analysts continue to suggest that the market is slowing, and, indeed it has, but not by much. In fact the stability of our Phoenix/Scottsdale Metro market continues.
Last month saw a healthy growth in listings under contract. This month, that translated into the strong growth in closed sales. Listings under contract grew slightly over last month, which will no doubt translate into stronger sales that we will report on during the first week of June.
Sales are not only recovering, they actually exceeded April 2018 by 5.3%. They were up 13.9% over last month.
According to Mike Orr of the Cromford Report, home supply is higher than last year, but it is falling more quickly than it did in 2018.
“…the market is more vibrant now than almost anyone expected it to be.” Michael Orr, The Cromford Report.
As The Cromford Report predicted, prices are rising, but at a slower pace than in 2018. The median sales price was up 5.9% compared with a year ago, while the average $/SF was up 5.5%. This is really good news, by which we continue to (at least for now) brag about the strength of our real estate market. Stability IS something to brag about! In many other sections of the country, home prices continue to drop. On top of all this is the recent jobs report which shows that our unemployment rate (3.6%) is at a 50 year low, not seen so low since the height of the Vietnam war when had 500,000 troops in ‘Nam.
The market continues to strengthen and the likelihood of falling prices in the near term is minimal. Buyers waiting because they thought prices would fall have been left in the dust. We have extremely low levels of distress, chronic low supply and the best buyers can hope for is that the appreciation rate will trend lower. We think that is a reasonable expectation, but it shows no sign of turning negative. It would take a very different set of numbers from the ones above for that to be a possibility.
One benefit right now for buyers are decreasing mortgage rates.