January 1st of each year, there is a major drop in the number of active listings in the Phoenix area market, because many listings’ expiration dates were tied to the end of the previous year. This year was no different.

Historically, January then begins an increase of new listings coming onto the market, including listings that didn’t sell the previous year, plus new ones arriving. At some point in spring, the number of listings peak and begin to fall. Last year, however, we saw a very early peak in the total number of listings – mid February. And this year the peak may be earlier than last year. Dare I say, we may have already peaked?

“And this year the peak may be earlier than last year.

Dare I say, we may have already peaked?”

Examples: Among the 15 larger valley cities, we see the following with drops in their single-family active listing counts over the past week. Remember, these numbers should be increasing:

  • Phoenix down from 1,833 to 1,746
  • Mesa down from 577 to 571
  • Scottsdale down from 1,303 to 1,283
  • Peoria down from 395 to 375
  • Queen Creek down from 466 to 440
  • Avondale down from 95 to 87
  • Cave Creek down from 159 to 157
  • Buckeye down from 416 to 383
  • Maricopa down from 245 to 235
  • Chandler down from 273 to 260
  • Glendale down from 276 to 262
  • Gilbert down from 325 to 291
  • Surprise down from 408 to 402
  • Tempe down from 128 to 125
  • Goodyear down from 306 to 295

This is (continues to be) a mega problem for buyers that continues to worsen. We’ve already seen sales with multiple offers and offers over full price. And it’s January. Hmm!

Advice to buyers:

  • If you’re not a cash buyer, get fully “loan approved.”
  • Come in with a strong offer. And make it clean, clean, clean!
  • Don’t get hung up on offering over full price. If the price you pay is 5% over the asking price, but the appreciation this next year is 10% to 20%, you will be considered wise.
  • Don’t be too choosy! The home you’re purchasing may not be the “perfect one” but in time you can make it that way, especially if the location and bones are good!

In over 4 decades in this industry, I’ve seen a lot. More than most agents who are trying to make a go of it in this business. I like to think I’ve seen it all, but I haven’t! There are, however, common denominators in a market that I’m able to spot quickly. This would include lack of supply, increase in demand, plus what’s happening on the street right now, multiple offers, desperate buyers and so on. This is that market.

Request: If you know of someone who is considering buying or selling their property, you would do well to recommend the Bodeen Team to them. I promise you that no one will work harder and wiser for YOUR supreme good than we will.

About the Author

     I was born and raised in San Rafael, California, from the mid 50’s to the early 70’s. I had super parents who worked hard to provide 5 kids with a good Catholic education – despite my best attempts to overthrow the knuckle-cracking regime of Sister Mary Anselma. My dad worked as a self-employed butcher until his retirement at 65 and enjoyed many wonderful years until mom passed away in 1992.

     Dad passed away in the fall of 2006 having lived a great and full life into his early 90’s! In California, I attended college in Chico and Sacramento as a “Sosh” major, but like many of my contemporaries, I did not have a clue what I wanted to do when I grew up. Because of my age, I missed the Vietnam War and into my early 20’s I had many typical youthful indiscretions.

     Thankfully, that was a brief period of my life, and with greater thanks, not too much damage was sustained in those early and rebellious years. And by the way, those thanks are due to the answered prayers of faithful relatives who prayed for years that a wayward Michael would turn his life over to the Lord, and in January of 1982 that’s what happened.

     I lived in Sacramento, California in the mid 70’s, and later moved to Truckee, California, which is near Lake

Tahoe and Reno, Nevada. Truckee’s often labeled the “coldest spot in the nation.” Why did I move there?

My father-in-law was a real estate broker in Donner Lake, California, and despite his cantankerous disposition, he seemed very successful in his real estate endeavors. I joined him in sales in July of 1976.

    The Truckee and Lake Tahoe area was a wonderful place to raise a family, but a difficult and cold environment to live in, but we did so for 18 years. In 1994, my wife, Karen, and I visited Scottsdale at a friend’s request, and within 8 months, our family of 5 had relocated to “the valley” – or is it a desert? Whatever it is, it’s warm. At any rate, 24 years have gone by since we made the break from the late great state of confusion, uh, California, and it’s turned out to be a great move.

     As for hobbies, I enjoy family, friends and travel. My kids Robert, Kendra, and Jonathan are now 40,

34, and 31 respectively. I recently became “gramps” for the 4th time as well. It’s a nice time of life. Karen remains as lovely on the inside and outside as the day we were married. We continue to wonderfully grow together as the years advance. As an ordained Christian Chaplain, I volunteer Preaching at Florence Prison with Along Side Ministry. The ministry helps make the formerly incarcerated able to function, even thrive, on “the outside.”

     Should you choose to have me represent you in the sale or purchase of your home, you’ll be receiving my 40+ years of real estate knowledge, counsel, and experience (including negotiation experience).

    Beyond the transaction, I’m always available to you, should you ever need my real estate advice.