January 1st of each year, there is a major drop in the number of active listings in the Phoenix area market, because many listings’ expiration dates were tied to the end of the previous year. This year was no different.
Historically, January then begins an increase of new listings coming onto the market, including listings that didn’t sell the previous year, plus new ones arriving. At some point in spring, the number of listings peak and begin to fall. Last year, however, we saw a very early peak in the total number of listings – mid February. And this year the peak may be earlier than last year. Dare I say, we may have already peaked?
“And this year the peak may be earlier than last year.
Dare I say, we may have already peaked?”
Examples: Among the 15 larger valley cities, we see the following with drops in their single-family active listing counts over the past week. Remember, these numbers should be increasing:
- Phoenix down from 1,833 to 1,746
- Mesa down from 577 to 571
- Scottsdale down from 1,303 to 1,283
- Peoria down from 395 to 375
- Queen Creek down from 466 to 440
- Avondale down from 95 to 87
- Cave Creek down from 159 to 157
- Buckeye down from 416 to 383
- Maricopa down from 245 to 235
- Chandler down from 273 to 260
- Glendale down from 276 to 262
- Gilbert down from 325 to 291
- Surprise down from 408 to 402
- Tempe down from 128 to 125
- Goodyear down from 306 to 295
This is (continues to be) a mega problem for buyers that continues to worsen. We’ve already seen sales with multiple offers and offers over full price. And it’s January. Hmm!
Advice to buyers:
- If you’re not a cash buyer, get fully “loan approved.”
- Come in with a strong offer. And make it clean, clean, clean!
- Don’t get hung up on offering over full price. If the price you pay is 5% over the asking price, but the appreciation this next year is 10% to 20%, you will be considered wise.
- Don’t be too choosy! The home you’re purchasing may not be the “perfect one” but in time you can make it that way, especially if the location and bones are good!
In over 4 decades in this industry, I’ve seen a lot. More than most agents who are trying to make a go of it in this business. I like to think I’ve seen it all, but I haven’t! There are, however, common denominators in a market that I’m able to spot quickly. This would include lack of supply, increase in demand, plus what’s happening on the street right now, multiple offers, desperate buyers and so on. This is that market.
Request: If you know of someone who is considering buying or selling their property, you would do well to recommend the Bodeen Team to them. I promise you that no one will work harder and wiser for YOUR supreme good than we will.