Is Phoenix Primed for Another Housing Crash?

No. At least not from what we can see at the moment. It’s true last year was slower than some, and it’s also true that so far 2019 has so far gotten off to a slow start. But a slow or stagnant market is not the same as a crashing market.

Few may have noticed the slow years of 2013 – 2014, which were very similar. Appreciation slowed, buyer enthusiasm waned, and sellers saw extended market times vs what 2012 had brought. But ultimately the fog cleared and prices began to rise again, leading into a strong 3 year seller’s market that is still going, though slowing again.

Here are a few basic reasons we don’t think Phoenix is in trouble:

  1. Phoenix Metro is still experiencing net population growth and job growth, so we don’t see demand slowing too much more than it already is. State economists are not predicting this to stop for Arizona anytime soon.
  2. Supply is historically low, so even though sales volume overall is a bit down, it still remains a sellers market in most areas in the Phoenix metro and therefore we are still seeing appreciation, though not as fast paced as 2016 and 2017.
  3. Short sales and Foreclosures continue to remain only a small fraction of the housing market.

Michael Orr from the Cromford Report also recently noted that there is not, as some claim, a historical link between rising interest rates and falling house prices, or even a link between sales volume dropping and prices dropping. What matters, as in any free market, is the relationship between supply and demand.

We are not the only ones who feel feel optimism about Arizona’s Housing Industry. Check out Catherine Reagor’s latest article. She is a great journalist who focues on Arizona Real Estate. We consume her content regularly.


About the Author

I had never really considering following my dad's footsteps into Real Estate, and so I see it as a bit ironic that my first foray into the industry was quite by accident, even though, in a larger sense, I now don't think it was an accident at all.

In 2008 I had fallen in love with an uncommonly pretty girl from Idaho and chased her to her hometown of Boise with the hopes of marrying her.  Well, they say it's important to have a job before embarking on the commitment of marriage and it just so happened that the man who rented me a room on craigslist, also happened to be a Top Producing Real Estate Agent that needed an assistant. (Shout out to Sean Taylor, still the best Realtor in Idaho and he will absolutely rock your socks off!)

It wasn't too long after that I became licensed and started trying to chase my own business.  It was rough going.  Turns out folks aren't super eager to work with a 22 year old agent driving a beater car.  But it was there that I learned the importance and meaning of fiduciary, and what it means to put your client first.  Also, that you mus earn your client's business.

After a brief back-to-school stint to try and finish my bachelor's degree in biblical studies, my dad, the legendary Mike Bodeen invited me to work with him back in AZ.

So the Mrs. and I have been living back in the land of the sun where I've been working with my dad helping to build the family business since 2013. We have two wonderful little girls now and lots of hopes and dreams for us and for them. Real Estate can be tough, when it's been a little too long since your last sale and bills are due, or when a lender or title company is botching a deal and you have to sew it back together.  But I'm so lucky and blessed to have a job where I can work largely from home and watch my little girls grow up.

Too boot, I've discovered the great joy of working hard for your client's best interests and surprising them with excellence. I derive a great deal of personal satisfaction from being instrumental in my clients success. 

I am quick to return phone calls, texts, and emails. I always strive to give my clients all the options possible and the pros and cons of any situation. Ultimately, my quest is to make Real Estate easy for you!