2019 Predictions for Phoenix Real Estate Market Part 1

As a Realtor professional, the first most asked question from people is not, how’s your family doing? Though many ask. No, the first question without exception, is “Mike, how’s the market? The real question they want to ask however, (and some are direct) is where’s the market headed?

Honestly, the answer is quite simply, “I have no idea!” Now that you have my caveat, I will give you my professional guesses. And I can guess with the best.

First let’s look at the current market:

Local MLS numbers for January 1, 2019 and comparing them with January 1, 2018 for all areas & types:

  • Active Listings: 17,339 vs 16,697 last year – up 3.8% – but down 6.6% from 18,563 last month
  • Under Contract Listings: 6,301 vs 7,583 last year – down 16.9% – down 18.5% from 7,735 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 6,498 vs 7,197 last year – down 9.7% – and down 2.1% from 6,638 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft: $164.74 versus $156.50 last year – up 5.3% – but down 1.2% from $166.71 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $260,500 vs $246,000 last year – up 5.9% – and unchanged from $260,500 last month

December was slow. Homes in escrow are down almost 17% from a year ago. Sales were down 9.7% from a year earlier as well. Prices, however, have risen between 5% and 6% due in large part to the low supply of homes for sale. Though listing inventory rose 3.8% from last month, it’s down 6.6% from the previous month

Mike’s 2019 Projections For:

Sales:  The same or up slightly. Honestly, it’s hard to see where new inventory (listings) will come from. Homeowners seem pretty set to hang out. Large rental holding companies who are managing tens of thousands of Phoenix metro single family homes, are happy to see rents continue to rise so there’s little need for them to liquidate, which is where the greatest source of new supply could come from.

Home Prices: Up! Home prices slacked off a little last month, but the continued pressure from valley newbies migrating from other states will increase even more. Red Fin States Phoenix is America’s #1 Relocation Destination. Quoting from their recent report: “Sizzling Phoenix is known for low humidity, which can make the searing heat almost bearable. Costs are low, too, helping to make the Phoenix metro area America’s No. 1 relocation destination.”

“More than a third of people searching for homes in Phoenix are from outside the region, according to the Redfin research. The area is most enticing to people in Los Angeles, followed by Seattle, Chicago, the San Francisco Bay area and New York. And here’s the big reason why: The median list price for a home here is just $300,000, far below what you’d pay in other booming metro areas.”

Read All Article: https://www.redfin.com/blog/2018/09/q2-2018-migration-report.html

*Data Courtesy of The Cromford Report

Next Week: More Predictions! You can read that article here.

About the Author

     I was born and raised in San Rafael, California, from the mid 50’s to the early 70’s. I had super parents who worked hard to provide 5 kids with a good Catholic education – despite my best attempts to overthrow the knuckle-cracking regime of Sister Mary Anselma. My dad worked as a self-employed butcher until his retirement at 65 and enjoyed many wonderful years until mom passed away in 1992.

     Dad passed away in the fall of 2006 having lived a great and full life into his early 90’s! In California, I attended college in Chico and Sacramento as a “Sosh” major, but like many of my contemporaries, I did not have a clue what I wanted to do when I grew up. Because of my age, I missed the Vietnam War and into my early 20’s I had many typical youthful indiscretions.

     Thankfully, that was a brief period of my life, and with greater thanks, not too much damage was sustained in those early and rebellious years. And by the way, those thanks are due to the answered prayers of faithful relatives who prayed for years that a wayward Michael would turn his life over to the Lord, and in January of 1982 that’s what happened.

     I lived in Sacramento, California in the mid 70’s, and later moved to Truckee, California, which is near Lake

Tahoe and Reno, Nevada. Truckee’s often labeled the “coldest spot in the nation.” Why did I move there?

My father-in-law was a real estate broker in Donner Lake, California, and despite his cantankerous disposition, he seemed very successful in his real estate endeavors. I joined him in sales in July of 1976.

    The Truckee and Lake Tahoe area was a wonderful place to raise a family, but a difficult and cold environment to live in, but we did so for 18 years. In 1994, my wife, Karen, and I visited Scottsdale at a friend’s request, and within 8 months, our family of 5 had relocated to “the valley” – or is it a desert? Whatever it is, it’s warm. At any rate, 24 years have gone by since we made the break from the late great state of confusion, uh, California, and it’s turned out to be a great move.

     As for hobbies, I enjoy family, friends and travel. My kids Robert, Kendra, and Jonathan are now 40,

34, and 31 respectively. I recently became “gramps” for the 4th time as well. It’s a nice time of life. Karen remains as lovely on the inside and outside as the day we were married. We continue to wonderfully grow together as the years advance. As an ordained Christian Chaplain, I volunteer Preaching at Florence Prison with Along Side Ministry. The ministry helps make the formerly incarcerated able to function, even thrive, on “the outside.”

     Should you choose to have me represent you in the sale or purchase of your home, you’ll be receiving my 40+ years of real estate knowledge, counsel, and experience (including negotiation experience).

    Beyond the transaction, I’m always available to you, should you ever need my real estate advice.