2019 Predictions for Phoenix Real Estate Market Part 1

As a Realtor professional, the first most asked question from people is not, how’s your family doing? Though many ask. No, the first question without exception, is “Mike, how’s the market? The real question they want to ask however, (and some are direct) is where’s the market headed?

Honestly, the answer is quite simply, “I have no idea!” Now that you have my caveat, I will give you my professional guesses. And I can guess with the best.

First let’s look at the current market:

Local MLS numbers for January 1, 2019 and comparing them with January 1, 2018 for all areas & types:

  • Active Listings: 17,339 vs 16,697 last year – up 3.8% – but down 6.6% from 18,563 last month
  • Under Contract Listings: 6,301 vs 7,583 last year – down 16.9% – down 18.5% from 7,735 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 6,498 vs 7,197 last year – down 9.7% – and down 2.1% from 6,638 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft: $164.74 versus $156.50 last year – up 5.3% – but down 1.2% from $166.71 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $260,500 vs $246,000 last year – up 5.9% – and unchanged from $260,500 last month

December was slow. Homes in escrow are down almost 17% from a year ago. Sales were down 9.7% from a year earlier as well. Prices, however, have risen between 5% and 6% due in large part to the low supply of homes for sale. Though listing inventory rose 3.8% from last month, it’s down 6.6% from the previous month

Mike’s 2019 Projections For:

Sales:  The same or up slightly. Honestly, it’s hard to see where new inventory (listings) will come from. Homeowners seem pretty set to hang out. Large rental holding companies who are managing tens of thousands of Phoenix metro single family homes, are happy to see rents continue to rise so there’s little need for them to liquidate, which is where the greatest source of new supply could come from.

Home Prices: Up! Home prices slacked off a little last month, but the continued pressure from valley newbies migrating from other states will increase even more. Red Fin States Phoenix is America’s #1 Relocation Destination. Quoting from their recent report: “Sizzling Phoenix is known for low humidity, which can make the searing heat almost bearable. Costs are low, too, helping to make the Phoenix metro area America’s No. 1 relocation destination.”

“More than a third of people searching for homes in Phoenix are from outside the region, according to the Redfin research. The area is most enticing to people in Los Angeles, followed by Seattle, Chicago, the San Francisco Bay area and New York. And here’s the big reason why: The median list price for a home here is just $300,000, far below what you’d pay in other booming metro areas.”

Read All Article: https://www.redfin.com/blog/2018/09/q2-2018-migration-report.html

*Data Courtesy of The Cromford Report

Next Week: More Predictions! You can read that article here.